Context
Recently, a report named G20 Climate Risk Atlas from the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) has said that G20 (Group of 20) countries including the wealthiest like the US, European countries, and Australia will bear extreme impacts of climate change over the coming years.
Impact on G20 Countries
- Heat waves: Heat waves can last at least ten times longer in all G20 countries, with heat waves in Argentina, Brazil, and Indonesia lasting over 60 times longer by 2050.
- In Australia, bushfires, coastal floods, and hurricanes could raise insurance costs and reduce property prices by $ 611 billion by 2050.
- GDP Loss: GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Loss due to climate change in G20 countries increases each year, rising by at least 4% per year by 2050. This could reach more than 8% by 2100, equivalent to the double bloc economic loss from covid-19.
- Other countries will be even worse hit such as Canada, could see at least a 4% drop in its GDP by 2050 and more than 13% in 2100.
- Rising sea levels: Rising sea levels could wreck coastal infrastructure within 30 years, with Japan set to lose 404 billion euros and South Africa 815 million euros by 2050, on a polluting route.
- Floods: Expected annual damage from riverine flooding in 2050 is estimated at 376.4 billion Euros under low emissions scenario and has risen to 585.6 billion EUR under high emission scenario.
Impact on India
- Emission Scenarios
- Low Emissions (emission lower than in present): Expected temperature variations will always be contained below 1.5 degrees celsius, both in 2050 and 2100.
- Medium emission (same as present): Between 2036 and 2065, the maximum temperature of the warmest month in India could rise by at least 1.2 degrees Celsius in a medium emission pathway.
- High emission (higher than present): By 2050 under conditions of high emissions scenario average temperature could rise to 2 degrees Celsius.
- Rainfall: Annual rainfall is likely to record a steep increase by 2050 and will increase by 8% to 19.3% in all emission conditions.
- Economic Impact: In India, declining yields of rice and wheat due to climate change could lead to economic losses of between 43 billion and 81 billion EUR (or 1.8-3.4% of GDP) by 2050.
- Demand for water in agriculture is likely to increase by about 29% by 2050 - meaning crop losses are likely to be underestimated.
- Heatwaves: Heatwaves in India will last 25 times as long as 2036-2065 if emissions are high (4 ° C), more than five times if global temperatures are rise to about 2 ° C, and one and a half times longer when the emission are very low and the temperature rises only reaches 1.5 ° C.
- Agriculture Drought: On the way to 4 ° C global heating, agricultural drought will be 48% more frequent by 2036-2065.
- At 2 ° C (the maximum temperature agreed by the Paris Agreement) drops to 20% more frequently and the constraining temperature rises to 1.5 ° C (the Paris target's aspirational goal), agricultural drought will still be 13% more frequent.
- Floods: 18 million Indians may be at risk of flooding by 2050 if emission are high, compared to 1.3 million today.
- Decreased workforce: The total number of workers is expected to decrease by 13.4% under the low emission scenario by 2050 due to increase in heat and by 24% under a medium emissions scenario by 2080.
- Food Security: In India, declining rice and wheat production could cause economic losses of up to 81 billion Euros by 2050 and loss of 15 percent of farmers' income by 2100.
